WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Democrats are projected to control at least 54 Senate seats, giving them authority over future Supreme Court confirmations.
  • Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito had signaled they did not plan to retire before Democrats assumed control.
  • Alito plans to remain through the current court term, while Thomas could become the longest serving justice ever.
  • A Democratic presidential victory in 2028 could leave both conservative justices in their 80s before another Republican replacement opportunity.

The Supreme Court was not literally listed on the midterm ballot, but control of the Senate placed the justices squarely inside the election’s consequences. Democrats are projected to take the chamber, giving them power over whether a president’s judicial nominees are confirmed once the new majority is seated in January.

Democrats are projected to hold at least 54 of the Senate’s 100 seats. The races in Alaska and Mississippi had not been called as of Wednesday morning, meaning that majority could still grow.

That result puts an especially bright spotlight on the court’s two senior members, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. They have also been the justices most likely to side with the current administration.

President Donald Trump called Thomas and Alito “legends” in September. The pair were the only dissenters when the court refused to approve the mail ballot restrictions Trump wanted for the midterm elections.

Trump was considerably less generous toward his own three Supreme Court appointees in the same social media post. “These are not the people I interviewed to serve on the United States Supreme Court, they are merely a shell of their original selves,” he said.

Trump appointed Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett during his first term. Those appointments gave Republican appointees a majority of six to three, creating a court that has backed Trump and his party in several landmark cases while rejecting some of their most extreme appeals.

Chief Justice John Roberts is the sixth Republican appointee and was nominated by President George W. Bush. Bush also nominated Alito, while Thomas was appointed by Bush’s father, President George H.W. Bush.

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Thomas, Alito or both could retire now, giving Trump and the outgoing Republican Senate majority a chance to confirm successors. Before Tuesday night, however, both justices had indicated that they did not intend to leave the court.

Alito told Bloomberg that he plans to remain at least through the current court term. That term will not end until after the new Democratic Senate majority is seated, closing the most straightforward path for an immediate Republican replacement.

Thomas could also make history if he remains through the following court term. Under that timeline, he would become the longest serving justice ever.

Even if Thomas or Alito agreed to step down quickly, Republicans would face another uncertainty. It is not clear whether the outgoing Senate majority could confirm successors it considered suitable before Democrats assume control.

Supreme Court confirmations during the departing congressional session may therefore be unlikely, though hardly shocking. Republicans have historically prioritized control of the court, while the future confronting Trump’s celebrated duo has suddenly become far less predictable.

Thomas and Alito are both in their late 70s, which the article notes is not terribly old by Supreme Court standards. But if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028, both justices would be in their 80s by the next possible opportunity for a Republican president and Senate to replace them.

The court’s newest member, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, was appointed by President Joe Biden. She succeeded Justice Stephen Breyer, a Clinton appointee who retired at 83 while facing pressure from the left to avoid repeating the circumstances that allowed Trump to appoint Barrett.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had resisted pressure to retire while President Barack Obama could still nominate her replacement. The Clinton appointee died at 87 in September 2020, allowing Trump and Senate Republicans led by Mitch McConnell to push through Barrett’s election year confirmation.

That confirmation followed Republicans’ refusal to consider Obama nominee Merrick Garland for the seat of the late Justice Antonin Scalia in 2016. Republicans argued then that the seat should remain vacant because it was an election year.

There is no indication that Thomas or Alito is battling the serious health problems Ginsburg faced. Even so, whether either justice might eventually be replaced by a Democratic president and Senate intent on undoing their legacies is now an open question that could linger for years.