President Donald Trump’s options for quickly ending the war with Iran have narrowed after historic Republican losses in the midterm elections, according to experts. The sweeping defeat weakened Trump at home while leaving the central military and diplomatic problems unresolved.

Trump has said he would consider resuming strikes against Iran after the midterms. Yet U.S. airstrikes are unlikely to force the Iranian regime to capitulate, and Iranian leaders are expected to maintain the expansive demands they have already made during negotiations.

“Iran has been very unwilling to have any reasonable discussions about peace,” said Leslie Shedd, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former senior aide to Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas.

Trump could order another round of U.S. airstrikes, but Iran’s government has already absorbed thousands of such attacks. More bombing would not necessarily produce the quick surrender Trump needs as his political position deteriorates at home.

The most extreme possibility would be dropping a tactical nuclear weapon on a nuclear storage site beneath Pickaxe Mountain. Experts said that extraordinary step would not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program because the program is deeply buried and spread across the country.

Such an attack would be the first involving a nuclear weapon of any size since Nagasaki. It would create long lasting radioactive fallout and threaten to destabilize existing weapons agreements among nuclear powers.

Congress could soon become another major obstacle for Trump. With Democrats winning more seats and Republicans displaying increasing skepticism toward the Iran war, lawmakers returning to Washington next week could demand a war powers resolution or move to cut funding.

Other available paths offer little relief. A U.S. bombing campaign, a reduction in American forces across the region or a unilateral declaration of victory would not alter the strategic reality described by experts.

Iran has demonstrated that the United States cannot prevent it from intermittently shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and pushing global energy prices higher. That leverage has allowed Tehran to impose economic pain while maintaining pressure on Washington.

“Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and ‌we endorse this message,” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted Wednesday on X in response to the midterm election results, according to Reuters.

“The fundamental issue is that the Iranians have no interest in coming to a peaceful resolution,” said Alexander Vindman, a former Trump National Security Council official who served as a witness against Trump in his first impeachment. “They want to inflict sufficient pain to ensure that the U.S. and Israel don’t do this again.”

Even destroying the site beneath Pickaxe Mountain would leave Iran with a far broader nuclear network. “Even if Pickaxe Mountain were completely neutralized, Tehran does not depend on a single underground facility,” Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and international security expert, wrote on Substack.

“Iran relies on a widespread network of hardened, underground, and deeply fortified technical facilities. This highly dispersed infrastructure is intentionally designed to withstand foreign surveillance and protect critical assets from potential precision strikes,” Pape wrote.

Iranian officials are also likely to view Trump’s midterm defeat as validation of their strategy of inflicting economic pain through higher energy prices. Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst for the International Crisis Group, said the approach is designed to turn economic costs into political consequences.

“Iran’s strategy has been built explicitly around the idea of imposing economic costs — which then translate into political costs — such that the U.S. is forced to de-escalate and deterred from attacking again in the future,” Brew wrote on X.

“They can — they believe — absorb costs more successfully than a U.S. president answerable to voters,” Brew added. “Tuesday provided evidence that this strategy, broadly speaking, has been successful.”

Trump has secured one significant point of pressure through a U.S. Naval blockade of Iranian ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade has placed intense economic pressure on Iran’s regime and its economy.

Iranian officials, however, are likely calculating that Congress will either pass a war powers resolution restricting Trump or cut funding for the U.S. military effort in the Gulf. Diplomats from Persian Gulf countries are continuing to mediate between Washington and Tehran, even as those countries experience far greater economic pain than Americans.

Reuters reported that Iranian officials sent the United States a proposal concerning Iran’s nuclear program this week. Trump is likely to demand its complete dismantlement to cement his legacy, while Iran has resisted that demand for decades.

A bombing campaign followed by a declaration of victory would not change the strategic reality that has developed during nine months of war. “The Iranians are still going to control the Strait of Hormuz. They can hit targets at will,” Vindman said. “There is no easy way out of this.”