WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley want stronger White House restrictions on staff use of prediction markets.
  • Gabriel Perez allegedly made $100,000 betting on Trump’s speech language before paying a $173,000 fine and losing his job.
  • The White House cited existing ethics rules, while Kalshi said its surveillance systems identified Perez’s unusual trading.
  • Trump Jr. advises Kalshi and Polymarket, while his venture capital firm has invested heavily in Polymarket.

Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Jeff Merkley of Oregon are pressing the White House to impose stronger restrictions on staff use of prediction markets. Their push follows the case of Gabriel Perez, President Donald Trump’s teleprompter operator, who allegedly made $100,000 on Kalshi by betting on words Trump would use in speeches.

Perez had access to Trump’s draft speeches. He paid a $173,000 fine, was banned from gambling and lost his job, but he was not criminally prosecuted.

That outcome contrasts with the case of a special forces soldier who participated in the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and used the information to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket. The soldier was eventually charged with using classified information for personal gain.

Government institutions have already begun tightening restrictions on prediction markets. In April, the Senate barred members and staff from using them, while some House members have prohibited their staff from using the platforms.

Warren and Merkley now want answers about why the White House has not issued its own regulations. In a letter obtained first by MS NOW, they asked White House counsel Will Scharf whether any other White House employees had placed similar bets.

The senators also asked whether White House staff had received training about the issue and whether anyone in the White House discussed the Perez case with federal regulators or prosecutors.

“The White House continues to take no meaningful action to address these problems,” the Democratic senators wrote, “all while the President and his family stand to personally profit from their participation in prediction markets.”

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle did not say whether any review of staff activity on prediction markets was underway. He told MS NOW that federal ethics rules already “prohibit White House employees from using nonpublic information obtained through their government work to place bets on prediction markets or otherwise further their own financial interests or those of others.”

Should members of Congress have term limits?

By completing the poll, you agree to receive emails from Left Scoop News, occasional offers from our partners and that you've read and agree to our privacy policy and legal statement.

Representatives for Polymarket, Donald Trump Jr. and Perez did not respond to requests for comment. Kalshi, however, noted that its internal regulators caught Perez’s activity.

Kalshi’s surveillance systems “flagged his trades as unusual activity,” and investigators identified Perez as a White House staffer, according to Robert DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement. The company then referred the matter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“Perez was charged and penalized by both the CFTC’s Division of Enforcement and Kalshi,” DeNault said in a statement to MS NOW. “It doesn’t matter who you are: violate Kalshi exchange rules or federal law and you will face the consequences.”

DeNault said members of Congress and officials in the executive and judicial branches are “strictly prohibited” from opening Kalshi accounts. He also said the company supports legislation barring congressional staffers and lawmakers from insider trading and briefed the House Oversight Committee on the case over the summer.

The Trump family, meanwhile, has a significant financial stake in prediction market companies. Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket, while his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, led a $1 billion Polymarket funding round this year.

The firm invested about $300 million in that round on top of roughly $200 million it had invested earlier. Trump Jr. told The New York Times in July that he invested as a private citizen and held “no policy position and no role within the administration whatsoever.”

Asked whether Trump Jr.’s advisory role affected Kalshi’s handling of Perez, DeNault said it did not. “We handled the matter concerning Mr. Perez the same as we would handle any potential violation of our exchange rules or the law,” he said.

Trump Media & Technology Group, the president’s company and owner of Truth Social, also announced plans for a prediction market called Truth Predict. The company has since scaled back those plans.

While the White House has cited existing ethics rules, War Secretary Pete Hegseth recently imposed additional restrictions. In an Oct. 20 memo to senior Pentagon leaders and combatant commanders, he barred troops and Pentagon civilians from using inside information to bet on military operations, specifically naming Polymarket and Kalshi.

“Our enemies watch movements in these markets,” Hegseth wrote. Federal rules already bar government personnel from profiting from inside information, but his memo reinforced that prohibition and went further than the existing restrictions.

Reuters reported in August that more than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets. Warren and Merkley are now seeking clarity on whether the White House will respond with safeguards of its own.