WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Trump may leave in two years, but his influence over Republican primaries could continue shaping troubled nominations.
  • Republicans have spent at least $268 million supporting Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico in Texas.
  • The party largely abandoned traditional candidate vetting while Trump backed a series of scandal plagued or unsuccessful contenders.
  • Republican leaders could restore basic standards by requiring tax returns, debates, and capable campaign staffs.

The Trump era is moving into its twilight, and nobody knows what comes after it. For some Republicans, that uncertainty may now be competing with a quieter emotion: relief that Donald Trump’s exhausting hold on the party is nearing an endpoint.

During Barack Obama’s 2015 State of the Union address, the president declared, “I have no more campaigns to run.” Republicans in the audience answered with a cheeky burst of applause, a response many of them may now understand rather differently.

Trump continues to free associate through hourslong rallies, praise men’s posteriors, embrace long debunked election lies, and obsess over ballrooms and triumphal arches. He is even telling supporters to pretend that he is on the ballot, but Republicans know this presidency will end.

Trump may leave in two years, but the problems he created for Republican candidate selection could linger. He is leaving behind troubled candidates who lost winnable contests or forced Republicans to spend heavily defending states that should have been safe.

Texas offers a spectacularly expensive warning. Republicans have spent at least $268 million supporting embattled state Attorney General Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.

The seat had been held since 2002 by Sen. John Cornyn, a stalwart conservative who repeatedly debased himself to demonstrate his loyalty to Trump. That still was not enough, and Trump endorsed Paxton in the primary.

Talarico has a good chance to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas in nearly 40 years. Even if Paxton wins, Republicans will have burned valuable resources and could acquire a six year migraine involving continued ethics problems, scandals, and controversies.

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Republicans may be tempted to dump all the blame on Trump, but that excuse only goes so far. A functioning political party would never have allowed a candidate as troubled as Paxton to advance this far in the first place.

Political parties once selected nominees in smoke filled backrooms. The rise of open primaries changed that system, but an invisible primary remained, allowing party leaders, major donors, and political action committees to vet candidates and block especially disastrous choices from gaining momentum.

That system did not necessarily allow party leaders to select the nominee, but it gave them influence. In 2016, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush appeared to win that invisible primary with his famous name, political connections, and money, only to collapse against Trump.

Since then, the Republican Party has largely abandoned its traditional vetting role. Trump has repeatedly supported troubled candidates like a gambler chasing losses, including Herschel Walker, Dr. Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, Doug Mastriano, Blake Masters, Roy Moore, and Mark Robinson.

The political system will not automatically return to its previous form when Trump leaves office. He has trained Republican primary voters to disregard glaring scandals, vile rhetoric, and incompetently managed campaigns when deciding which candidates deserve the party’s nomination.

Even experienced Republicans will have to compete head to head with far right conspiracy theorists for the party’s most committed primary voters. In that process, those candidates risk damaging their own reputations before they ever reach a general election.

A sweeping come to Jesus moment driven by decency appears unlikely, but Republican hunger for power might accomplish what principle has not. If the party wants to win, its leaders must begin imposing some minimum standards for the candidates seeking voters’ attention.

That does not require heavy endorsements from party elders. State parties or the Republican National Committee could establish basic benchmarks, including releasing tax returns, participating in a debate, and assembling a capable campaign staff, standards Trump himself failed at various points.

In all likelihood, Tuesday night will begin the end of Trump’s stranglehold over what remains of the Republican Party. Any revival of the party of Lincoln will require members to grow spines and wrest control from scavengers seeking to animate Trump’s political ghost.

The Republican Party’s long dark night is therefore not ending with Trump’s approaching departure. It is only beginning, fueled by a political culture that tolerated chaos, discarded candidate standards, and repeatedly confused loyalty to one man with the work of building a functioning party.