President Donald Trump heads to Syracuse on Friday after a string of rallies in heavily Republican states. This time, he is entering a Democratic leaning city where Republicans hope his ability to mobilize loyal voters does not produce an equally strong response from Democrats.

The evening rally at the Oncenter in downtown Syracuse will feature Bruce Blakeman, the Republican candidate for governor, and Kailee Buller, the GOP candidate for New York’s 22nd Congressional District. Trump also hopes to build enthusiasm for Republican candidates across central New York.

Blakeman has been candid about the strategy behind the visit. “Well, listen, we need those Trump voters to get out,” he said on Fox News earlier this week, noting that they turned out in large numbers two years ago.

The Republican gubernatorial candidate has ground to make up. A Marist poll released this week shows New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is seeking reelection, leading Blakeman by 11 points, although she is losing support among independent voters.

The fight for the 22nd District presents another challenge. The district, which includes Syracuse and Onondaga County, leans Democratic according to forecasters, and Democrats flipped it in 2024.

Republicans, who are defending a narrow House majority, are working to reclaim the seat in November. Kevin Ryan, chair of the Syracuse City Republican Committee, told MS NOW there is “absolutely” a chance Buller can win.

Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said a Republican could capture the district again, but only under demanding conditions. “They would have to be very moderate,” Reeher said.

Reeher said the Republican candidate would need to portray the Democratic incumbent, or a Democratic challenger in an open race, as too far to the left. He described the district as not terribly liberal and said its political tradition has favored moderation for decades.

Buller has already created some distance between herself and Trump. During a recent debate with Rep. John Mannion, the Democratic incumbent, she indicated opposition to a prolonged war with Iran and acknowledged that Americans are struggling with high gas prices.

She also said she is not a “rubber stamp for the president.” While supporting immigration enforcement, Buller said Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have made “tragic” mistakes.

Trump’s Syracuse appearance is also intended to help Republicans elsewhere in New York, including candidates who are trailing their Democratic opponents. The political terrain beyond the 22nd District offers the GOP a mixed and increasingly uncomfortable picture.

In the neighboring 21st District, Republican Anthony Constantino leads Democrat Blake Gendebien. Last month, the Cook Political Report moved the contest from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” marking the first time since 2018 that it rated the seat as anything less than solidly Republican.

Farther south, in the Hudson Valley’s 17th District, a recent Emerson College poll showed Rep. Mike Lawler trailing Democrat Cait Conley by two points. With multiple races in play, Republicans are looking to Trump to generate enthusiasm among their voters.

Reeher called the president’s visit a “double-edged sword” and said Republicans are “banking on getting the better side of the knife.” Because elections like these tend to hinge more on turnout than persuasion, he said, Trump is trying to energize Republicans and his MAGA base.

“He’s coming up here to get hopefully more of his people excited than the Democrats, who he will also excite, to come out and vote the other way,” Reeher said. That is the central risk of placing Trump at the center of the Republican turnout operation.

Ryan said Syracuse offers a practical gathering point for supporters traveling from across New York, including Albany and Buffalo. “Syracuse is the geographic center of the state,” he said.

Local grassroots advocacy organizations, meanwhile, are preparing protests only blocks from the Oncenter. Tom Keck, an organizer with Indivisible Onondaga County, told Trump, “Don’t come here with the hate,” while also condemning attacks on voting rights, trans people and immigrants.

Ryan defended Trump’s record and said the administration is delivering what voters chose in 2024. He cited border policy, trade and the economy, while acknowledging the war with Iran and arguing that Trump was the first president since Jimmy Carter to act against the threat Ryan said Iran poses.