South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has conceded that Kansas is presenting the GOP with a much tighter Senate contest than Republicans would like in a state long treated as safely red.

Speaking to Semafor, Scott acknowledged that Republican Sen. Roger Marshall risks a stunning defeat against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. His admission puts an unusually blunt Republican spotlight on the contest.

A Hamilton victory would mark a seismic political change and provide one of the biggest indications of voter backlash against Donald Trump and the GOP during the president’s turbulent second term. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

The state also has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Yet Scott openly admitted that Republicans are facing a genuine contest rather than the comfortable race they might ordinarily expect.

“It’s a very competitive state, more competitive than I’d like to see it. But the fact of the matter is that we’re going to win in Kansas,” Scott said. “It’ll be closer than I want it to be.”

Democrats believe Kansas is among the red states that could be in play in November because of the deeply unpopular Trump. The president is recording approval ratings near record lows as his party approaches the midterms.

The war in Iran is also among the president’s policies weighing on the political environment described in the race. The conflict has caused soaring gas and diesel prices, adding another source of voter frustration ahead of the election.

Flipping the Kansas Senate seat would substantially help Democrats in their effort to regain control of the upper chamber. Democrats are also widely expected to seize the House, raising the stakes surrounding an unexpectedly competitive contest in Kansas.

Several warning signs suggest Marshall’s reelection campaign is in danger. Earlier this month, a poll from The Hill and Emerson College Polling found Hamilton leading the Republican senator by 2 percentage points, 45% to 43%.

Another poll reinforced that warning for the GOP. A Wedgewood poll released last week showed Hamilton ahead of Marshall 50% to 48% during the crucial period leading into the midterms.

The influential Cook Political Report has also changed its assessment of the Kansas Senate race. The publication moved the contest from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” another indication that Marshall cannot simply count on the state’s political history.

There have also been suggestions that Marshall is attempting to create some distance from Trump and the president’s policies as he works to improve his reelection prospects. That apparent shift has been particularly visible around immigration enforcement.

Marshall has frequently praised ICE and Trump’s hardline immigration tactics. But he softened his position after masked federal agents swarmed parts of Kansas in September, targeting meatpacking plants and potential family members of local children.

“When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe,” Marshall posted on X.

Marshall has faced additional scrutiny following reports about his previous work as an obstetrician and gynecologist. He reportedly sued more than 700 of his own patients over outstanding bills, providing another complication for his reelection effort.

Elsewhere, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he is eager for Trump to campaign in states that could go either way in November. Schumer argued that the president’s appearances and preferred subjects ultimately benefit Democrats.

“When Trump travels, he hurts people,” Schumer told Semafor. “When he comes to town, that itself helps us. But then he always talks about the wrong things. He talks about things people don’t give a damn about.”