Three months ago, Troy Jackson’s political future looked bleak after the former state senator finished third in Maine’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Then Graham Platner’s sudden fall produced a reversal dramatic enough to strain a Hollywood script, making Jackson the party’s U.S. Senate nominee against Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

A new New York Times/Siena survey has now delivered a sobering check on Democratic optimism. It puts Collins ahead 49% to 46%, within the margin of error, in a contest that could help determine control of the Senate and whether it can check President Donald Trump.

That result is not a command to panic. Two other surveys released the same day showed Jackson leading or tied, and a contest involving Collins was always likely to remain a toss up until the end, regardless of any single polling snapshot.

Collins has survived five previous Senate races by winning ticket splitting voters who like and respect her. Six years ago, Joe Biden beat Trump 53% to 44% in Maine, while Collins defeated Democrat Sara Gideon 51% to 42%.

The same split appears in the Times survey. Trump’s approval rating stands at just 32%, and 55% of respondents want Democrats controlling the Senate, yet Collins still holds a narrow advantage.

Her campaign formula is familiar and disciplined: attack the opponent relentlessly, denounce criticism as unfair, insist on bipartisan and centrist credentials, and advertise federal money secured for modest projects across Maine. This year, the first element matters especially because Jackson became the nominee late.

Jackson’s campaign had to start quickly, presenting him as a fifth generation logger, union activist and working class candidate. But it has said little about his accomplishments in the Maine legislature, including his service as state Senate president, and the Times/Siena poll found Collins led him 54% to 43% on perceived effectiveness as a leader.

Collins’s attacks have arrived with a major cash advantage, much of it from super PACs, including one funded by Elon Musk and another run by long time ally Scott Reed, who has ties to Collins’s husband. Ads show angry images and carry the message “Troy Jackson: Just another dirty politician.”

The allegations involve mortgage fraud, improper travel reimbursements and influence peddling by Jackson’s son, a lobbyist. The underlying claims do not withstand scrutiny, but relentless repetition and limited pushback from Jackson’s campaign may be helping them stick.

Jackson has instead concentrated on breaking Collins’s image as competent and bipartisan, repeatedly telling voters she “voted with Trump 96% of the time.” His campaign also highlights healthcare funding cuts, and Jackson leads Collins 49% to 46% on who voters see as more effective on healthcare.

Collins’s centrist standing also suffered after she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, particularly when Kavanaugh and three other justices she backed voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Jackson ads feature older women who supported Collins before but say they cannot do so again, a swing group he needs.

Still, Collins has a concrete home state pitch: money and resources she says she brought to Maine. In the Times/Siena survey, 59% viewed her as better at delivering those benefits, compared with 35% for Jackson, reinforcing a strength she promotes through photo opportunities and advertising.

Jackson answers that the cuts Collins supported outweigh the funds she secured, while linking her to Trump through tariffs and the Iran war. Maine’s long driving distances and dependence on home heating oil sharpen the argument, especially with heating oil costing 81% more than a year ago.

Collins has asked the Trump administration to use the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to restrain price increases, but how much that would help is unclear. Another threat arrived through a ProPublica report that documented an alleged pay to play corruption scheme involving Collins, her staff and a defense contractor.

Collins and her office denied the allegations, but the report received widespread coverage in Maine. Jackson called it “corruption of the highest order,” and his campaign is using the story as further evidence tying Collins to Trump.

Jackson also possesses the grassroots energy Collins lacks, holding town halls, contra dancing with voters, appearing with other Democratic candidates and mobilizing thousands of volunteers. Collins relies more heavily on ads and a bus tour that brings supporters in campaign shirts and carrying signs to locations not announced to the broader public.

That contrast does not erase Collins’s money advantage, established image or tested strategy, and defeating a longtime incumbent remains difficult. Early voting begins Oct. 5, but with Trump unpopular in Maine, voters favoring Democratic Senate control and Collins still holding deep electoral resilience, this fight is poised to remain close through Election Day.