In 1910, British journalist Norman Angell published The Great Illusion, arguing that economic developments had made war a senseless proposition. Economic ties were increasingly fragile, while modern militaries had become so expensive and destructive that war between major powers would impose enormous costs on both sides.

Angell reasoned that conquest could no longer deliver the riches once associated with figures such as Julius Caesar. If war broke out despite that reality, he expected it would not last long because the economic damage would make continued fighting obviously irrational.

He was only half right. Four years later, a huge war pulled in the world’s major powers, shattered the economies of countries that experienced serious fighting, and continued for four blood drenched years.

Germany and Russia kept fighting long after pursuing peace became the smarter option, and both governments were eventually toppled by revolutions. Then, 20 years later, the same nations essentially went to war again, with even more devastating consequences.

Today’s global economy is vastly more delicate and interconnected, and modern militaries are dramatically more expensive and destructive. Yet leaders of major powers, including Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, are still launching wars of aggression despite the glaring economic consequences.

That contradiction is Angell’s dilemma. No matter how irrational war becomes, some belligerent politicians remain willing to start one, leaving entire countries and the global economy to absorb the punishment.

Trump’s war in Iran has not yet caused an economic crisis in the United States because it is not occurring on American soil or requiring a full scale mobilization. Iran and other countries around the Persian Gulf have already experienced far more direct damage.

Iran cannot defeat the United States military in open combat, although it has severely damaged many American bases across the Middle East. Its strategy instead has focused on imposing economic pain on the United States and its allies through attacks affecting global energy supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz has not been fully open since February 28. Iran and its allies have also targeted alternative energy routes, bombing the pipeline carrying Saudi crude across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, while Houthi allies seized strategic control of the Bab al Mandeb strait.

Those disruptions have further restricted global oil supplies. Oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel, while limited refining capacity has made products refined from oil even more expensive.

The average American gasoline price reached $4.45, while diesel stood at $6.51. In many poorer countries, the combination of restricted supplies and soaring prices has become a full blown fuel crisis.

The damage to diesel refining capacity also connects the Iran conflict to the war in Ukraine. After Trump cut off American aid to the Ukrainian military last year, Ukraine no longer faced American restrictions on how supplied weapons could be used because those weapons were no longer arriving.

Ukraine has since launched increasingly bold attacks against Russian economic infrastructure, seeking to inflict pain on its opponent. Those attacks have been highly successful and are a major reason the war has produced serious economic crises in both Russia and Ukraine.

Almost half of Russia’s oil refining capacity has been taken offline, and Russia has banned exports of gas and diesel that previously generated substantial export revenue. Its foreign currency reserves are rapidly shrinking, inflation and national debt are rising, and the central bank’s short term interest rate is 14%.

Russia also faces a worsening labor shortage as it sustains more than 30,000 casualties each month. The contrast with Trump’s treatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last year is bleakly comic.

Trump berated Zelensky and claimed Ukraine lacked leverage, only to later seek his help as high diesel prices threatened an epic midterm defeat. After abandoning an ally and surrendering his own leverage, Trump demanded that Zelensky stop attacking Russian diesel refineries for Trump’s political benefit.

The spectacle reinforces Angell’s central point about the staggering costs and basic senselessness of war. Oil refineries are complicated, expensive, and packed with highly flammable materials, making wars of conquest especially reckless for countries whose economies depend heavily on oil.

The lesson is not that irrational wars have disappeared as their costs have grown. It is that reckless leaders will still start them, and voters must avoid handing those leaders the presidency before everyone else is forced to pay for their stupidity.