Is Trump’s decision to run a good thing or bad thing for Democrats? It is tough to tell, but it sounds like strategists and vote organizers better just accept it as reality until proven otherwise. Of course, Trump hasn’t announced yet, but according to the MAGA-insiders interviewed by Politico, Trump is running again. He is setting up an Iowa office and planning an Iowa rally, Jason Miller says it’s 99% to 100% that he’ll run again.

Trump campaign adviser, Jason Miller, declared Thursday that the chances of him running are “between 99 and 100 percent. I think he is definitely running in 2024. I had a good conversation with him last night. I’m going to go see him in another couple days here.”

All of this is well and good, and we’re certain that it may be settled in Trump’s mind, but there is a lot that can happen in three-plus years.

It certainly does show that Trump is convinced that he need not worry about any criminal charges from the federal government. Given the lack of any DOJ activity on even low-level White House staffers, one must wrestle with the fact that it’s likely that the most criminally corrupt president in history, a man who likely engineered (or at least incited) an attempted overthrow of the government, will have an open door to run and commit far worse crimes. Thank you, Merrick Garland.

But a lot of other things can happen in three years. For one, people can actually continue to get sick of him. “MAGA” excitement doesn’t translate into 265 electoral college votes. The rest of the country, perhaps 60%, may just get nothing but increasingly sick of him.

Speaking of “sick,” we don’t know which way COVID is going to go and even more of the public may be sick of the MAGA movement that Trump leads. We simply cannot foresee all that COVID will do, but it does now seem here to stay, and even the vaccinated will need booster shots along the way. Additionally, the new “Mu” variant just gives us more to think about with respect to mutations. There will be a lot of research showing just how badly Trump and his MAGAs blew the opportunity to have stamped it out.

Speaking of sick again, Trump isn’t young anymore and he showed some real issues the last time he was president. He may be full of energy right now but not so much in three years. Most people will be sick of him. Whether they vote or not is another question.

All of the above leads Politico to state that his current flurry of activity does give him an advantage over Republican rivals, but doesn’t say much about winning generally:

Though deplatformed from Twitter and Facebook for spreading misinformation and sparking the Capitol riot that led to his historic second impeachment, Trump has remained the heart of the party and the most sought-after endorser in Republican primary politics. Now, instead of his flood of daily tweets, his leadership PAC sends out tweet-length statements, sometimes repeatedly in a day.

We are near certain that his endorsement will remain critical to most Republicans. Whether that endorsement is good for a general election or not remains to be seen. A lot can happen in a year.

Oh, and Trump will be 78 in 2024, and Trump isn’t known for jogging or riding bikes like Biden. Trump may decline significantly. Additionally, Biden isn’t getting any younger and may declare the mission accomplished in keeping Trump from eight straight years of corruption. He may end up handing the baton to Kamala Harris – oo just wait to see how the primaries turn out – and dash out, having been a successful Democratic president. For all the above reasons, the Democrats better start planning now, and let Trump prove to them that he’s not running. Match his effort, it’s the only thing that’s been able to beat him and he remains beatable.

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