The writers at this site have repeatedly pointed out that state prosecution of an ex-president sets a precedent that is fraught with danger. But that is a policy choice for another day. As the situation stands right now with respect to New York, it is Trump’s position that is fraught with danger.

Bloomberg’s Tim O’Brien noted that last week, DOJ directed the Treasury Department to hand Trump’s federal taxes over to Congress (as required by law). Trump is likely to litigate this issue into the ground just as he did the information within the New York state taxes. We have also made the point that if Trump skimped on his state taxes, it is open season on what he might have done on the higher federal taxes. It would be a war.

But O’Brien said that Trump’s biggest worry, at least for now, should be where things stand with the state of New York. Speaking on CNN, O’Brien said, about the federal taxes:

I’m assuming they are looking at this and still challenge it on the grounds that the DOJ, Bill Barr’s DOJ blocked the release, which was, that congress was just engaging in a fishing expedition and it wasn’t pursuant to Congress’s oversight authority or legislation and therefore it should be stopped. I imagine they’ll try to challenge that in court, but they’re going to have an uphill battle with that.”

O’Brien had little doubt that Congress would get Trump’s federal taxes eventually and thus they would become available to the public:

“I suspect we will at some point. I think Congress is going to have to be judicious and I think circumspect about how they post these. There is a lot of, I think, issues around the separation of powers and checks and balances that rides as much on trust as it does on the rule of law.

And then O’Brien lowered the hammer:

I think the Manhattan DA’s investigation is still the most perilous for him; that is a criminal investigation that is still a possibility that there is an orange jumpsuit waiting for Donald Trump at the end of that process,” O’Brien explained. “I don’t anticipate getting there, there is a lot of evidence that needs to come into the public record before that occurs.”

We highly doubt that Trump will end up in an orange jumpsuit for a tax crime in the state of New York, in part because he’ll litigate it up and down various Supreme Courts until his death and in part because the MAGAs will react with violence that makes January 6th look like the prom. They will see it as nothing short of a political maneuver to keep Trump away from the White House.

“I don’t know that any of his core supporters would care about any of this. I think the real issue is what do traditional conservative Republicans and moderate voters think about it in a general election and that is really the meat of the issue.

There is no doubt in our minds that the true MAGAs don’t care about the New York charge. They take pride in Trump “owning the libs” and what better way than not paying a liberal state’s taxes? With respect to moderate Republicans and independents, we doubt there are many left. Sad, but charges in New York won’t likely move the needle at all.

On the other hand, if Merrick Garland ever showed up to work one day and investigated “TFG” and “TFG’s” possible role in January 6th, that is an entirely different matter that might bury the needle.

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