Donald Trump’s campaign to disrupt voting has repeatedly collided with courts, state officials, and election safeguards. The Postal Service continues delivering ballots, the Justice Department has not seized control of voter rolls, and numerous other schemes have failed.

In major cases involving state officials who resisted Justice Department demands for voter files, the administration’s court record stands at 0 for 28. Those officials included seven Republicans, while only Alaska, South Carolina, and Texas voluntarily agreed to let the department review voter files for supposedly ineligible names.

The underlying claim of widespread illegal voting has also fallen apart under scrutiny. DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin claimed that Nevada voter rolls contained 15,903 noncitizens, but that figure dropped to 185, and Nevada officials determined that every one of them was a U.S. citizen.

State attorneys general, secretaries of state, and groups including the Brennan Center and Protect Democracy have spent months conducting simulations of potential election interference. With limited exceptions, Trump and his allies have continued losing in court, where even Republican judges have rejected the administration’s crude maneuvers.

Chief Judge Michael Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the Justice Department to provide details about its voter information demands and efforts to purge state rolls, or withdraw those demands. The deadline was noon the following day.

In California, the administration sought to set aside 20,000 ballots by claiming the voters might not be citizens. U.S. District Judge David O. Carter blocked the demand, ruling that the administration was engaged in “a broad, ongoing pattern of attempted election interference.”

A coup based on an emergency declaration is considered far less likely because such an action would have no legal basis. Neither ICE, the FBI, nor the military is expected to intervene and halt the election, but intimidation and localized disruption remain serious concerns.

Federal prosecutors, ICE and DHS agents, and local vigilante groups aligned with MAGA could target election workers and voters. Trump has said he is ordering 1,000 federal officials into the field to monitor voting, a total equivalent to only 20 officials per state.

Legal groups defending democracy have prepared shell pleadings so citizens can quickly seek court injunctions against intimidation. Ian Bassin of Protect Democracy said organizations have arranged rapid access to counsel and created infrastructure to sue on behalf of voters when local counties refuse to act.

The administration has also repeatedly threatened state and local election officials with prosecution if illegal voting is discovered in their jurisdictions. Federal prosecutors sent subpoenas to state and local officials on Thursday as part of a criminal investigation into supposed illegal voting.

Utah Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson, a Republican who has resisted administration demands, described the personal toll of threats against her. “I’ve had to have counselling just to function, to deal with the burden of fear that comes from the threats I’ve been getting,” Henderson said.

Ballot or voting machine seizures represent the most alarming possibility. In January, Kurt Olsen, an election denier appointed White House director of election security, requested that the FBI seize materials from Fulton County, Georgia, leading to the seizure of roughly 650 ballot boxes, tabulator tapes, and related records from the 2020 election.

Fulton County sued for the return of those materials, but a federal judge ruled in May that the Justice Department could keep them. Another federal district judge rejected the department’s request for names and contact information for every election worker involved in the county’s 2020 operation as an illegal fishing expedition.

Traditional voter suppression remains another threat, including fewer polling locations, confusing voting instructions, selective identification requirements, and registration barriers. An October 29 Shorenstein Center survey of more than 48,000 adults found that 10% of potential Texas voters received conflicting registration information, while about 4% reported challenges or removal notices.

Black and Hispanic voters were targeted disproportionately, but broad suppression did not prevent Democrats from flipping 41 House seats during the 2018 blue wave. Polls suggest an even stronger wave, while Democratic governed states and states with election officials who reject MAGA tactics do not face the same suppression.

Republican governors could also refuse to certify some results, although courts could overturn attempts based on false illegal voting claims. A separate January 3 scheme involving House Speaker Mike Johnson would require support from a majority of the outgoing House, and enough Republicans opposed to MAGA could block it.

Trump’s tactics may deny some citizens their votes, delay counts, and cost Democrats several seats. Yet the repeated legal failures, organized resistance, and expected turnout make it unlikely that his collection of dirty tricks will stop the broader blue wave.