A trio of election stories is giving Republicans plenty to sweat while creating a separate Democratic uproar in Michigan. Florida’s early voting numbers are alarming the GOP, another attack on James Talarico is falling flat, and Rep. Haley Stevens is facing calls for punishment.

In Florida, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds is running against former Republican congressman turned Democrat David Jolly. They are seeking to replace term limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Republicans hold a massive voter registration advantage.

That advantage has not calmed GOP nerves. “Florida Republicans aren’t panicking about sluggish turnout for the midterms, but in the words of one GOP elder: ‘We’re white-knuckled,’” reported Axios.

Republicans led Democrats in early ballots by 3 percentage points as of Sunday morning. That margin is far smaller than in the past two general elections, even though Republicans now enjoy an 11 point registration advantage over Democrats.

The weakness is particularly apparent in portions of the conservative Panhandle and rural North Florida. Those areas include many of the 17 counties Donalds lost during the Republican primary.

University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found Republican turnout in those 17 counties was 3.2 points below its 2022 level. In counties Donalds carried, GOP turnout was 1.1 points below 2022.

The potential hole is enormous. “Donalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes, according to internal Democratic and GOP estimates shared with Axios.”

According to Axios, Republicans would then need to win Election Day voting by a margin of two votes for every one Democratic vote to capture the governor’s race. Donalds may also be confronting racism from members of his own party.

Conservative activist Laura Loomer pointed directly at that possibility. “During the primary, he underperformed in the Panhandle and if people think skin color didn’t play a role in that, they are naive.”

The same counties where Donalds struggled in the primary are now recording especially weak Republican turnout. For a party already watching uncomfortable early voting figures, that geographic overlap hardly offers reassurance.

In Texas, Republicans are making another attempt to manufacture damaging material against Democratic Senate nominee and state Rep. James Talarico. The latest effort arrived two weeks after their previous failed attack.

Several major conservative media organizations reportedly declined to publish the story before Townhall took the bait. It concerns an account created in 2010 and apparently abandoned just 54 seconds later.

Even Townhall acknowledged the central problem with the supposed scoop. “It is unclear from the fling.com data breach records who actually created the account.”

Talarico’s lawyers deny that he created it, while the associated zip code and birthdays do not match his information. The underlying episode also dates back 16 years, making the breathless attack look even thinner.

The Republican messaging is incoherent on its own terms. The party’s core attack against Talarico is that he is gay, yet its latest attempted scandal rests on the claim that he may have been seeking women.

Michigan Democrats, meanwhile, are furious with Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens after she endorsed Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers for Senate. Rogers is running against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

The betrayal has managed to unite the Democratic Party’s establishment and progressive wings behind El-Sayed, something he had struggled to accomplish himself. Congressional Democrats are also discussing whether Stevens should be removed from the caucus or punished by leadership.

“Eight House Democrats privately told Politico they want Stevens removed or for her to be somehow punished by leadership,” reported Politico. “Stevens was also removed from a series of House Democratic member text chats Sunday, according to three of the people, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly.”

Politico reported that some Democrats worry removing Stevens could hurt the party during the lame duck session because Republicans hold a narrow House majority. Some senior Democrats are reportedly hoping a large victory Tuesday will allow the controversy to fade amid the celebrations.

That concern is difficult to take seriously when Republicans already control the House and Democrats can block most partisan legislation in the Senate. Stevens endorsed a Republican Senate candidate over her own party’s nominee, and Democrats now face the obvious question of what could warrant caucus expulsion if that does not.