California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s universal clemency for the 548 people awaiting execution in his state marks a major turn in American politics. His Nov. 5 announcement suggests that opposition to capital punishment is no longer fatal for politicians with presidential ambitions.

Newsom is an ambitious politician who is almost certain to seek the presidency in 2028. He reportedly considered how commuting hundreds of death sentences, including those of notorious killers, could affect those plans before moving forward.

That calculation matters because it offers a revealing measure of the current political power of law and order messaging. Newsom’s decision indicates that a likely presidential contender no longer needs to treat support for capital punishment as an electoral requirement.

The clemency will still provoke opposition in California and across the country. The New York Times reported that opponents are expected to challenge the action by arguing that blanket commutations violate the law and that every case must be evaluated individually.

Marc Klaas, whose daughter Polly Klaas was kidnapped and murdered, is among those furious about the prospect of mercy for her killer or anyone else sentenced to death. He criticized Newsom for “putting his energy” into commuting sentences for “serial killers, spree killers, cop killers, baby killers. We’re talking about absolutely the worst people in our society, without a doubt.”

The Times also observed that the action could strengthen Newsom with liberal voters during a Democratic primary while creating an opening for attacks during a general election. Yet his opposition to capital punishment was hardly a secret before this announcement.

Newsom has publicly described the death penalty as immoral and took dramatic action against it by imposing a moratorium on California executions in 2019. In other words, clemency did not suddenly transform his political identity because opposition to executions was already part of his established brand.

The broader political environment has also changed. When voters in this week’s midterms ranked six issues by importance, crime finished last, with only 3% saying it was the most important issue facing the country.

The same pattern appeared during the 2024 presidential campaign, despite Donald Trump repeatedly attempting to inflame fears about crime. Only 1% of voters identified crime as the most important issue in deciding whom they would support for president.

Democratic politics had already moved decisively away from the old posture. In 2020, every candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination except one publicly opposed capital punishment, and Joe Biden became the first president to advocate ending it after winning the election.

That position would have been politically difficult to imagine several decades earlier. During the 1988 campaign, a group supporting then Vice President George H.W. Bush produced the so called Willie Hoton ad portraying Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis as soft on crime.

The ad placed the death penalty at the center of the contest by emphasizing that Bush supported it while Dukakis did not. A 2015 WNYC report said the ad’s effects stretched beyond that election and helped begin an era dominated by fear and tough on crime politics.

The consequences were evident during the 1992 presidential campaign. Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton briefly left the campaign trail in New Hampshire and returned to his state to preside over an execution, even though state law did not require the governor to be present.

A 2015 article in The Atlantic said politics required the appearance because Clinton wanted to raise his national profile and reverse the Democratic Party’s soft on crime image. Newsom’s ability to act where Dukakis and Clinton faced such severe political constraints represents a significant change.

Newsom would also have company among potential Democratic presidential contenders. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro called for abolishing capital punishment in February 2023 after explaining that his experience as attorney general changed his thinking about pursuing death sentences.

Georgia Sen. Jon Osoff has long called for ending the death penalty and is a cosponsor of legislation that would abolish it at the federal level. Former Vice President Kamala Harris also said in 2019 that she had long opposed capital punishment, calling it immoral, irreversible and ineffective.

Newsom extended mercy to everyone facing a death sentence in California, and the political evidence presented here suggests he is unlikely to pay much of a price. Opposition to capital punishment is no longer the presidential death knell it once appeared to be.