As Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner pursue an end to the war in Ukraine, they are also chasing trillions of dollars in potential investment agreements promoted by the Kremlin. President Donald Trump’s envoys envision business ties that could benefit Washington and Moscow after the fighting stops.

Current and former American officials, European officials and Russia analysts offer a much harsher assessment. They described the Russian economy as uninvestable for the foreseeable future and warned that Trump’s team has dramatically overestimated what American companies could gain.

The projects favored by the administration would require vast amounts of capital, yet officials and analysts said broad rewards for American companies and the wider economy are unlikely. They said people within Trump’s circle who are positioned to secure lucrative agreements could be more plausible beneficiaries.

“There are influential voices in President Trump’s orbit who have an excessively rosy or optimistic assessment of the potential upside for U.S. companies in the Russian economy,” said Ludovic Hood, a veteran diplomat who worked on diplomatic efforts and served under Keith Kellogg.

Hood, now at the Hudson Institute, said the investment lure is distorting the administration’s approach to negotiations over Ukraine. “Some voices are so wedded to this naively rosy assessment of commercial upside that it has had a detrimental impact on President Trump’s quest to preside over ending the war in Ukraine,” he said.

A Senate Democratic aide briefed on diplomatic discussions offered a similarly grim judgment. “They are overestimating the possibilities and, frankly, the viability of some of what they’re looking at,” the aide said, adding that Russia would not cooperate sustainably with Americans in its most sensitive and lucrative industries.

A White House official said Trump is seeking an end to the war “so the senseless killing ends.” The official added, “The President and his team remain committed to continuing to play a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he remains optimistic that we’ll ultimately get a peace deal done.”

The investment push returned to prominence as Witkoff sought to revive diplomacy that had been stalled for months. After Witkoff met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Oct. 21, Kirill Dmitriev said the two countries were discussing joint projects, including data centers powered by small scale nuclear plants.

Dmitriev, who runs Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and is close to Putin, is Witkoff’s principal Russian interlocutor. He said a recent agreement allowing Russia to sell diesel fuel to American and global markets had broken the ice for further commercial connections.

The Trump team has publicly said business agreements would follow the end of fighting, but it has explored them during diplomatic discussions as an incentive for Putin to compromise. A photograph from the St. Petersburg meeting showed Witkoff holding a note card listing business deals alongside thanking Putin and pursuing trilateral talks.

Trump has emphasized potential economic transactions since he began speaking with Putin early in his term. “I am in serious discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia,” he wrote on Truth Social in February 2025.

Two European officials said Trump administration officials are falling for a tactic Putin has used for years. According to those officials, Putin and his allies have repeatedly exaggerated the profits available to American and European corporations inside Russia.

The underlying numbers make the Kremlin’s glittering pitch look considerably less shiny. Russia’s growth slowed to about 1% in 2025, its middle class is shrinking, and the Kremlin plans to direct roughly 35% of its 2027 budget toward the military.

Even before the full scale invasion, about 1,500 foreign companies tracked by the Kyiv School of Economics recorded combined profits of $18 billion on $318 billion in revenue during 2021. Russia’s current annual economic output stands at $2.5 trillion, smaller than France’s.

Extracting oil and rare earth minerals from remote Russian regions is costly and time consuming, while infrastructure is antiquated. Sanctions, potential confiscation, difficult Arctic conditions and punishing rules for Western companies add political, legal, operational and reputational risks to an investment fantasy already resting on shaky ground.