Donald Trump’s hopes of securing the Nobel Peace Prize appear to have been dashed once again. The president mounted an unprecedented lobbying campaign for last year’s prize, publicly arguing that he deserved the prestigious honor.

Trump ultimately lost to Venezuelan opposition politician Maria Corina Machado. She later gave Trump her gold medal, a spectacle that raised concerns about whether something similar could happen with this year’s winner.

Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said Machado’s decision could shape the thinking of the panel of five members. “I think last year’s events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of the considerations that they make,” he told Reuters.

Gjerloew said the committee could be wary of placing another recipient in Trump’s sights. “One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from Donald Trump… I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good.”

One contender whose selection could particularly aggravate Trump is Pope Leo. The first pope born in the U.S. has repeatedly clashed with the president, especially over Trump’s war with Iran, while becoming a forceful advocate for peace worldwide.

Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, described Leo as a figure whose influence reaches beyond the Catholic Church. “The pope stands (for) more than just as a religious figure,” Haggag told Reuters. “He has emerged as a leading thought leader.”

Trump has called Leo “weak” and accused him of “endangering a lot of Catholics.” The president also claimed the pope holds that position because “he thinks it’s fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

In an April post on Truth Social, Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” The statement shocked people around the world and prompted a public rebuke from Leo.

“Today, as we all know, there has also been this threat against the entire people of Iran,” Leo told journalists gathered in Italy. “And this is truly unacceptable. There are certainly issues of international law here, but even more, it is a moral question concerning the good of the people as a whole, in its entirety.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is another potential winner whose selection would infuriate Trump. Covers.com, a betting and prediction market site that tracks Kalshi prices, reported that Carney was trading at a 14% implied chance on Monday.

Trump’s own outlook was dramatically worse. The site said of his prospects, “That chance is near-zero.”

The U.S. and Canada have become embroiled in an increasingly bitter trade war, while relations between the allies have fallen to historic lows. It remains uncertain whether the committee will select someone likely to provoke Trump or choose a recipient who gives him less cause to rage.

Oeivind Stenersen, a historian who has written about the Nobel Peace Prize, said the committee could face pressure to defend the international system celebrated by the award. “They have a certain pressure… to be tough against Trump,” he told Reuters.

“In this serious international situation, this year calls for a Peace Prize in defense of liberal democracy, international law and human rights,” Stenersen said. Such a standard would present an awkward reality check for a president who spent last year loudly promoting his own candidacy.

Trump’s previous campaign centered on his mystifying assertion that he had ended conflicts involving Israel and Iran, Israel and Hamas, Pakistan and India, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand and Cambodia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Serbia and Kosovo. One involved no fighting to end, while others lasted only days, and leaders involved questioned his claims.

Trump also claimed the U.S. brokered peace between India and Pakistan amid their dispute over Kashmir. India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri responded, “The talks regarding cessation of military action were held directly between India and Pakistan under the existing channels established between both militaries.”

After losing last year, Trump blamed Norway even though the award panel operates independently of the country where it is based. When Machado handed him her medal, the committee said the prize could not be transferred, and The Daily Beast contacted the White House for comment.