President Donald Trump heads to Iowa on Thursday for a rally aimed at energizing Republican voters in the closing days of the midterm campaign. His visit comes as farmers face rising costs and control of Congress hangs in the balance.

Iowa has reliably supported Trump, who carried the state three times and won it by 13 points in 2024. This year, however, several Republican candidates are locked in unexpectedly competitive races.

Trump is returning to Iowa for the first time in nearly 10 months. He will campaign in part for Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate seeking the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are nearly tied in polling averages from MS NOW/FiftyPlusOne. A reliably red state, in other words, is not looking quite so reliable with voters preparing to decide control of Congress.

“There are a number of Senate seats in play that we did not expect to be in play,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. He added, “[Trump’s] record and his approach are likely to appeal much more to members of his base than they are to independent or swing voters.”

The rally at Sioux Gateway Airport is the first of at least two planned Iowa visits by Trump during the final stretch of the midterms. His campaign is also visiting other traditionally Republican states as the political landscape shifts.

A Republican strategist familiar with the party’s midterm planning said Trump’s stops in deeply Republican areas are part of a deliberate effort to increase turnout among loyal supporters. The strategist was granted anonymity to discuss internal strategy.

“Specifically, the 4th District, where we’re deploying him, is the heart of the base, the heart of Republican support,” the strategist said. “If we can churn out our base voters in that area, Democrats’ path to winning the state just shrinks dramatically.”

The administration is promoting an $8 billion relief package for farmers and construction plans for a $15 billion steel plant in Iowa. Trump has also touted foreign trade agreements intended to expand exports of American agricultural products, along with other efforts targeting farmers and ranchers.

Some farmers who spoke with MS NOW said those trade agreements have done little for their businesses while diesel and fertilizer costs have risen. Trump’s decision earlier this year to lower tariffs on ground beef from Argentina also angered parts of Iowa’s cattle industry, with both Hinson and Turek opposing the policy.

Craig Moss, a fifth generation cattle and hog farmer from Hull, said the volatile cattle market had been “rough” during the past year. He attributed part of the trouble to Trump lifting tariffs on Argentine ground beef.

“Trump makes a trade deal with Argentina, and then when he’s questioned about it by reporters, he says, ‘You don’t know anything about what’s going on over there,’” Moss said. “Well, sir, you don’t know anything about the cattle market.”

Moss also said the current diesel price “kind of stinks” and blamed the ongoing Iran war. Although he previously voted for Trump and continues to agree with him on most issues, Moss said he did not regret his earlier support.

Fremont County farmer Julius Schaaf, who has grown corn and soybeans for more than 40 years, voted against Trump in previous elections. He blamed the industry’s volatility on Trump’s trade policies and called the administration a “rude and difficult” trading partner.

“A lot of the people that supported him were farmers that have a lot of equity in their property, and they can weather a storm for a while,” Schaaf said. “But you talk to the young guys that are just getting started and trying to buy inputs and inputs have gone through the roof — they’re the ones that are really struggling.”

Vice President JD Vance addressed those concerns at an Iowa rally last month, arguing that the administration’s trade and tax policies benefited farmers and blue collar workers. Vance acknowledged high gasoline costs and told voters “we’re working on it,” while Trump has called the focus on affordability a “hoax” and said prices would fall after the Iran war ends.

Iowans across the political spectrum told MS NOW that the cost of living was their leading concern, though many remained undecided in congressional races. Tiffany, who supported Trump in 2024, said rising prices were making ordinary necessities increasingly difficult to afford.

“If you can’t afford to put gas in your car, how can you go to work to make money to put a roof over your head to put food on your table?” Tiffany said. “You can only stretch your penny and your dollars so far until you can’t stretch it anymore.”