President Donald Trump returns to San Antonio on Wednesday with far more than another friendly rally on his schedule. Republicans likely need to hold Texas’ Senate seat to preserve their majority in a national climate that has turned sharply difficult for the party.

Trump’s repeated visits also carry a personal burden: protecting his reputation as the GOP’s kingmaker. His eleventh hour endorsement helped Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeat longtime Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter Republican primary runoff in May.

Paxton now faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has maintained a narrow but consistent lead in public polling. A Paxton defeat would land squarely on Trump’s endorsement record, a political receipt the president cannot easily hand to someone else.

“Texas is a must win, and this would be his biggest endorsement fail,” said a former White House official granted anonymity to discuss campaign strategy. “This one would be a stain on his list.”

Wednesday’s rally marks Trump’s third Texas trip in less than a month, after remarks at a Denton truck factory and an unprecedented two day Republican midterm convention in Dallas. Although Trump has promised to visit the country’s 35 most competitive races, his Texas appearances look much more like defense than offense.

Republicans have not lost a statewide Texas race since 1994. Yet the president’s party typically struggles in midterm elections, and Republicans are now defending themselves over the war with Iran and high gas prices, while Trump polls poorly among moderate voters on those issues.

Another former Trump administration official described the party’s predicament in brutal terms: “It highlights the dangerous and unsettling position the Republican Party finds itself in: shoring up the GOP base that’s been hurt viciously by Trump’s tariff and war policies,” the official said. “These red states are hurting.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the story. Spokesperson Davis Ingle said last week that nobody could dispute Trump had built one of political history’s most robust coalitions through the MAGA movement and that the president knows how to communicate with it.

A strategist familiar with Republican midterm thinking dismissed fears that Paxton could lose, pointing to repeated predictions that Democrats would flip Texas before Republicans ultimately won. The strategist also argued that renominating Cornyn would not have guaranteed victory amid pervasive opposition to incumbents.

The Senate arithmetic still leaves little room for swagger. Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats’ 47, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control; Texas is not essential to that path, but losing it would leave Republicans little margin elsewhere.

With less than a month until Election Day, at least $450 million has gone into advertising for the Texas contest, according to AdImpact. More than $130 million of that spending came during the sprawling Republican primary, before the general election had even begun.

Most Republican groups now appear united behind Paxton, though possible holdouts include Cornyn and former President George W. Bush. Bush reportedly hosted a Texas fundraiser last month for Republican Senate candidates in battleground contests, but not Paxton, after Trump’s endorsement helped turn Cornyn’s potentially safe reelection into chaos.

Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term in a race generally polling within the margin of error, will skip Trump’s San Antonio rally and cited scheduling conflicts. Some Republicans view that absence as deliberate because Trump is weak with moderate voters who could determine a close result.

Abbott nonetheless praised Trump’s organizing power on Monday. “When the president shows up, it creates excitement among the base. He does a good job of organizing the base and turning people out,” Abbott said before explaining that previously scheduled events would keep him away.

The Senate contest is not Texas Republicans’ only close fight. As they defend a narrow House majority in November, the party is also targeting several redrawn majority Hispanic districts in South Texas that Trump carried in 2024.

Trump’s tour began in friendly territory across Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama, all heavily Republican states, while some GOP strategists believe the route keeps him away from contested races where skeptical moderate voters matter. In Oklahoma, Trump said he was “worried” about Texas and Michigan and urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.

Registered Republican Tom Prohonic said Trump’s repeated returns show the state needs his campaigning, but he plans to vote for Talarico. He cited Paxton’s impeachment and corruption allegations; Paxton denied those allegations, and securities fraud felony charges were dropped after he pleaded not guilty and agreed to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution.