As Botswana moved toward independence, it held its first election under universal suffrage in 1965, and the Bechuanaland Democratic Party, led by Seretse Khama, won more than 80% of the vote. Asked whether he would have preferred a smaller margin, Khama replied: “I think it’s healthy to have an opposition which is effective, because it keeps the government on its toes.”

That lesson is now landing with a thud in conservative states across America. Republican gerrymandering and the clustering of right wing voters have allowed many Republican politicians to avoid seriously contesting general elections, provided they satisfy primary voters.

That comfortable arrangement may be cracking in 2026. Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen into the low 30s, while tariffs, rising diesel costs, and Medicaid cuts linked to rural hospital closures have inflicted particular pain on areas that usually elect Republicans easily.

Formerly safe Republican districts are consequently becoming competitive. Politicians accustomed to automatic victories are suddenly being asked to attract a broad cross section of voters, exposing candidates who appear out of touch, careless, and deeply intolerant of criticism.

Kansas now has a live U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a local megachurch pastor. No Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat since 1932, during the Great Depression.

Sarah Kliff of The New York Times reported in early September that Marshall, during his previous career as an obstetrician, charged 18% interest on unpaid bills and sued 700 former clients. Eighty one were arrested, while bank accounts were garnished over debts as small as $129.

A functioning political organization might have examined whether its candidate had repeatedly pursued new mothers over medical debt, including a $3,600 emergency C-section bill. Republicans apparently did not bother before handing Marshall a prized Senate seat.

Nebraska offers another grim lesson in neglected vetting. Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is facing independent Dan Osborn while absorbing attacks over his 2022 vote to pardon a man who pleaded guilty to raping a woman in front of her children in 1993.

In Texas, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico, a seminarian. Paxton’s baggage includes taking a $1,000 Mont Blanc pen, narrowly avoiding federal prosecution for securities fraud, being impeached by the majority Republican Texas House, and arranging a favorable plea agreement for admitted child sex abuser Adam Hoffman.

Paxton publicly claimed Hoffman served 60 days, although the source reports that Hoffman served 29. Even the inflated figure hardly offers a stirring defense of Paxton’s judgment.

Republicans already had an incumbent Texas senator loyal to the party in John Cornyn. But Paxton, backed by Trump, defeated Cornyn in this year’s primary, leaving Republicans to defend a candidate carrying years of widely reported scandal.

Marshall has responded to the Times report with similar political finesse. He defended his conduct as “common business practices,” drew repeated boos at a state fair debate, and sent Hamilton a cease and desist letter alleging defamation, thereby keeping the damaging story in public view.

Iowa presents yet another case of a safe seat Republican discovering public opinion rather late. GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, facing Democrat Josh Turek for an open Senate seat, voted six times to continue Trump’s war in Iran before calling on September 21 for it to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.”

Hinson did not explain how that would happen, and she voted against a war powers resolution that would have ended funding for the conflict. The reversal came as diesel prices battered Iowa’s harvest season and Trump’s trade wars strained the state.

Florida Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar has likewise said ICE detentions “have gone too far,” despite supporting the Laken Riley Act and the Big Beautiful Bill. Her district is 74% Hispanic, giving the complaint a distinctly belated quality.

Trump, meanwhile, may finally be confronting a political crisis that celebrity and extraordinary luck cannot erase. Courts and political distractions cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz or push diesel below $4, leaving Republicans to face voters after years spent treating competitive politics as somebody else’s problem.