After spending several weeks pitching and rejecting ways to cut fuel costs, Republican lawmakers are confronting a bleak Election Day outlook. Gas prices are likely to remain at historic highs, even if they ease somewhat from current levels.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday night waiving restrictions on diesel marked with red dye in an effort to lower diesel prices broadly. But Trump is not about to end the war with Iran before Nov. 3, and proposals would have only a marginal effect until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

Facing that reality after weeks of demands for action, GOP lawmakers left Washington and headed for the campaign trail. Their menu of possible responses had already been picked apart by lawmakers and energy analysts.

“There’s no silver bullet,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski told MS NOW. “You could end the war in Iran tomorrow, and it still is not going to get us back to where we were in February.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune briefly considered a diesel export ban before concluding that it would cause prices to rise over the longer term. Allowing E15 throughout the year is awaiting progress on a broader farm bill, while suspending the gas tax would reduce revenue used to maintain highways.

Asked on Sept. 24 whether Congress should act before leaving Washington, Thune told MS NOW to “tell me what that is.”

“I think there have been some ideas out there, most of which I don’t think are going to do much to impact gas prices,” Thune said. “Again, the best way to get gas prices in a better spot is to get things opened up and get the free flow of global commerce, which right now, in the strait, isn’t the case.”

Sen. Cynthia Lummis told MS NOW that Republicans understand the political danger of high fuel prices. She said resolving the conflict with Iran before the election was the only development likely to have much effect, but she did not expect that to happen, adding, “So, it’s a headwind.”

The average gallon of regular gas cost just under $4.37 on Monday, according to AAA, while diesel averaged $6.32 per gallon. That diesel price is roughly $1 above the previous historic Election Day high of $5.33 in early November 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, said four weeks is enough time to estimate a rough Election Day range. Seasonal patterns point toward slightly lower prices during the coming month, but he does not expect a major change.

Kloza said regular gas would probably continue averaging at least $4 per gallon. Diesel is harder to estimate, but he said it would probably remain above $6 per gallon when voters head to the polls.

Iran could further complicate prices over the next several weeks as its leaders monitor the U.S. midterm elections. Rapidan Energy Group has advised clients that Iran is likely to escalate attacks against shipping and energy infrastructure, although Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy said China has reduced its purchases of Persian Gulf oil.

De Haan said policymakers lack options to reduce gas prices significantly beyond ending the war with Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reaching an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. “Politicians don’t have a lever to override global economics,” he told MS NOW.

Suspending fuel taxes could defeat its own purpose by encouraging demand without addressing the supply shortage, De Haan said. He also warned that an export ban could briefly lower diesel prices but give refineries an incentive to reduce production, eventually pushing prices higher.

Some Republican senators remained attracted to action despite the thin list of workable choices. Sen. Rick Scott said he was open to suspending fuel taxes and suggested balancing the federal budget, while Sen. Jim Justice expressed openness to a diesel export ban even though he was unsure how much it would help.

Congress could oppose the Iran war, but Republicans have largely remained loyal to Trump on the issue. Congress adopted a war powers resolution in June directing the administration to cease hostilities, which Trump ignored, while another Senate effort failed in September on a 49 to 50 vote.

Trump has attempted to shift blame from the Iran war toward disruptions in Russia, where Ukraine has attacked oil refineries. Although Middle East Gulf crude exports excluding oil produced by Iran have returned to prewar levels, Kloza said shipping and insurance costs from the Persian Gulf to Asia have been around $33 per gallon, compared with a previously normal $2.

Congressional leaders ultimately left Washington without taking action, and Trump did not follow through on considering a diesel export ban. Sen. John Hoeven said Republicans should tell voters that the United States will win the war and that the outcome will eventually produce safer conditions and more stable energy costs.