About a month after Michigan’s August 4 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed met with Black mayors and elected officials from across the state. His task was clear: win over voters who had strongly supported Rep. Haley Stevens.

Several officials told El-Sayed they had not seen enough of him during the primary. Some said he had not campaigned in their communities, a characterization he firmly disputed.

“I’ll just tell you, through the course of the primary, I’ve actually been to every one of your cities,” El-Sayed said. He acknowledged that he had not campaigned directly with every official, including some who supported Stevens, but said he had pursued their constituents’ votes.

El-Sayed pointed to his work as health commissioner of Wayne County, which is 37% Black, and described himself as a “hands-on public servant.” He promised greater visibility and said, “I want to understand what the problems are, and I want to figure out how I can partner together to solve them.”

The 41 year old progressive emerged from a contentious primary after facing more than $60 million in attack advertising. But the results exposed a serious weakness, with African American voters overwhelmingly backing Stevens while younger voters propelled El-Sayed.

EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn said El-Sayed performed poorly among Black voters outside the 30 counties he carried. “He would not have won the primary were it not for the overwhelming support he got among younger voters,” Porn said.

El-Sayed must also retain Michigan’s Arab American voters while answering concerns from some Jewish voters about his positions on Israeli sovereignty and Palestine. The coalition math is especially delicate because tensions have existed between some Black and Arab American communities in Michigan.

The state has almost 400,000 Arab Americans, nearly 4% of its population, according to the Arab American Institute. African Americans account for about 14% of Michigan’s population, or roughly 1.41 million people, according to census figures.

About 83% of African American voters in Michigan are Democrats, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Arab American voters are more evenly divided, with 38% identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic and 38% identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican, according to a national Arab American Institute poll.

Donald Trump won Dearborn by six points over Kamala Harris in 2024 after his campaign pursued Arab voters. During the August Senate primary, however, El-Sayed captured almost 80% of the vote in Dearborn and 70% in Dearborn Heights.

El-Sayed has been outspoken in support of Palestinian rights and against robust economic assistance to Israel during the war in Gaza. He supported the Uncommitted movement during the 2024 Democratic primary before endorsing Harris after she became the presidential nominee.

Some Black voters viewed his initial reluctance to back the Biden Harris ticket skeptically. Macomb County Commissioner Michael Howard said Harris’s Michigan loss left some Black voters feeling that others had turned their backs on their candidate.

Since securing the nomination, El-Sayed has participated in discussions with Black leaders and campaigned with former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester. He has also appeared on The Breakfast Club and Higher Learning, while former President Barack Obama endorsed him and scheduled a Michigan campaign appearance.

Obama defended that support during a fireside chat in Virginia. “But I don’t know, he’s for a higher minimum wage and health care for all, and it doesn’t seem crazy to me. You know, FDR was for that too.”

Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers has meanwhile sought support among Democratic leaning constituencies. His campaign released advertisements aimed at Arab and Black voters, including one in which three Black Michiganders called El-Sayed “too arrogant and way too extreme.”

El-Sayed’s campaign has answered with a broad closing strategy focused on rural and northern Michigan, Stevens supporters around Detroit, and Arab voters. He has also held private fundraisers with Muslim, Arab, and African American donors and leaders.

Polling gives El-Sayed a clear but modest advantage, with 21 of 22 polls since Labor Day showing him ahead. He has predicted victory by as much as seven percentage points, while polling averages place his lead over Rogers at 2.7 points.

Recent Michigan Senate margins show why every piece of the coalition matters. The latest contest between Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Rogers was decided by fewer than 20,000 votes, or 0.3 percentage points.

Former Michigan House Speaker Joe Tate said Democrats still face points of friction, but he believes Trump hangs over the contest. El-Sayed framed the stakes more bluntly: “We’re too busy fighting each other because of our differences to realize they are picking our pockets at every turn.”