Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map in an effort to eliminate as many as five Democratic seats. Among their targets, the 9th District was expected to provide the easiest Republican pickup.

The district is represented by Democratic Rep. Al Green. Its political composition changed dramatically, going from a seat former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 44 percentage points in 2024 to one President Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 points.

Yet a poll released Wednesday suggests Republicans are still struggling to put the district comfortably out of reach. The results arrived as Trump’s approval rating continues to fall amid Americans’ anger over his handling of the economy.

The survey came from the campaign of Democratic nominee Leticia Gutierrez. It found Gutierrez trailing Republican nominee Alex Mealer by 6 points, with Mealer receiving 45% and Gutierrez taking 39%.

Gutierrez’s campaign released the polling to demonstrate that the contest remains close despite the district’s Republican shift. That alone complicates the GOP’s expectation that the 9th District would be among its easiest flips under the new congressional map.

The Cook Political Report also moved the race onto its board of competitive seats last week. It designated the district as Likely Republican, meaning Republicans are clearly favored but could still lose if a Democratic wave becomes large enough.

Gutierrez’s 39% showing is hardly an ideal number for an underfunded Democratic campaign. Still, the House result was not the most politically alarming finding for Republicans buried inside the survey.

The pollster also asked voters about the Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. That portion of the survey produced a much tighter result than Republicans would want from a district Trump carried by nearly 20 points.

Paxton led Talarico by only 1 point, receiving 48% to Talarico’s 47%. In a district where Republicans need Paxton to build up his numbers and help pad his statewide margin, that narrow advantage is an unmistakable warning sign.

If the poll accurately reflects the district, Paxton is failing to generate the kind of margin Republicans need from territory remade to favor their party. A 1 point edge in the 9th District leaves precious little room for comfort.

Trump’s super PAC is spending nearly $200,000 on attack mailers targeting Gutierrez. The effort may also represent an indirect attempt to help Paxton by encouraging voters in the district to support the Republican Senate nominee while opposing Gutierrez.

The spending itself shows that Trump’s political operation is paying attention to a House race Republicans expected to have firmly in hand. Pouring nearly $200,000 into attack mailers is not exactly the picture of a party casually cruising through friendly terrain.

The survey is only one data point, and Gutierrez remains behind Mealer. But paired with Paxton’s razor thin advantage over Talarico, it offers another indication that Republicans are having serious trouble heading into the midterms.

Republicans engineered the district expecting a straightforward gain after Trump’s nearly 20 point victory there. Instead, the House race has entered the competitive board, outside money is flowing against Gutierrez, and Paxton holds only the slimmest Senate lead.

That combination gives Democrats reason to view a more competitive Texas as more than a distant hope. The possibility of Blexas, once described as a sparkle in Democrats’ eyes, now looks increasingly real as Republican margins show signs of strain.