Along the Kalamazoo River in Allegan County, Michigan, local Republican leaders are operating from a temporary lower level office while volunteers distribute campaign signs and literature. Minutes away, Democrats have a permanent headquarters and an increasingly energized operation.

Their target is Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga, an eight term congressman representing Michigan’s Fourth Congressional District. Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann, who comes from the nearby college town of Kalamazoo, is mounting what has become Huizenga’s toughest reelection battle.

Public polling in the race has been scarce, but internal polling sponsored by McCann’s campaign showed the Democrat leading by one point as of mid September. That marks a dramatic shift from 2024, when Huizenga defeated his Democratic opponent by double digits.

Republicans and Democrats alike caution against trusting the limited polling. Yet the Republican rush to protect Huizenga, complete with millions of dollars from national groups and wealthy interests, signals that the party is taking the threat seriously.

The race is unfolding as President Donald Trump faces anger over the war in Iran and declining consumer sentiment. Republicans were already confronting the usual obstacles facing the party in power during a midterm cycle, while voter frustration has made Huizenga’s light red district unusually competitive.

Huizenga entered Congress in 2011 after serving six years alongside longtime Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra and later serving in the state legislature. Following redistricting, he ran in senior Republican Rep. Fred Upton’s seat in 2022, effectively pushing Upton into retirement.

Now, approximately $7.7 million in outside super PAC spending has arrived from the national Republican campaign arm, the crypto industry, Elon Musk, Trump’s MAGA Inc., and the banking industry funded Alliance for Economic Freedom. Huizenga is a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee.

Democrats have countered with $7.5 million, led by the House Majority PAC run by Democratic leadership, LCV Victory Fund, and Your Community PAC. McCann’s campaign says Huizenga’s total support from outside special interests is closer to $10.5 million when direct contributions from utilities, data center developers, and others are included.

“Bill Huizenga sides with powerful special interests in Washington,” McCann said in a statement, “and now they’re rewarding him with millions to try to keep him there.” The torrent of cash has made the contest one of the nation’s most expensive congressional races despite limited national coverage.

Republican enthusiasm in Allegan County has taken a hit. “People feel disenfranchised by the economy and the war in Iran,” Melanie Kurdys, secretary for the Allegan County Republican Party, told the Prospect. “Allegan is one of the most Republican counties in the state. It’s not different this election, but enthusiasm is down.”

Kevin Whiteford, a former Republican candidate for a state legislative seat, acknowledged frustration over Iran while defending continued involvement. “The process was maybe not right,” Whiteford told the Prospect. “But if we are there, it’s important we make sure Iran doesn’t get a nuke. You have to finish what’s been started.”

Economic unease is also cutting through Republican messaging. Gasoline prices in Allegan were consistently $4.79 a gallon, while the national average spent 158 days above $4 this year, even as Whiteford described the economy as vibrant and blamed oil companies and refineries for gasoline costs.

Democrats placed Huizenga’s seat on their initial Red to Blue target list in February, while local organizing had been underway since at least 2024. Van Buren County Democrats opened three field offices, and McCann recently drew hundreds to a standing room only affordability forum in Saugatuck.

Helen Goyings, chair of the Allegan County Democratic Party, said anger over affordability has generated an organic surge of Democratic support. “But people are actually like, ‘I’m pissed. I can’t afford this. I want change,’” she told the Prospect.

Huizenga has not publicly distanced himself from Trump’s war in Iran and recently hosted House Speaker Mike Johnson. Meanwhile, Huizenga’s campaign released an AI generated country pop video branding McCann “Tax Man McCann” over a raise he supported while serving as a Kalamazoo city commissioner sometime between 1998 and 2008.

Republicans have also tried linking McCann to democratic socialists and progressives nationally, but voters from both parties are talking more about living costs than ideological labels. McCann’s strategy depends on strong Kalamazoo turnout and winning over frustrated voters in the district’s rural communities.

“Watch the returns this year,” Goyings said about Allegan County. “We’ve generally been over the years anywhere in between like a 65-35 county. If I can get us up to 45%, or 55-45, I did my job.”