President Donald Trump’s political operation has finally begun unloading serious money after spending much of the summer on the sidelines. With fewer than six weeks before Election Day, its spending decisions reveal a Senate map that appears to be narrowing for Republicans.

The most striking investment is in Texas, where Democrats have not won a statewide race in more than three decades. MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, has disclosed spending $15 million since early September to protect a seat currently held by Republicans, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

That total includes $10 million spent earlier this month to support Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general and Republican nominee, while attacking Democratic opponent James Talarico. Another $5 million went toward television and digital advertising over the weekend.

The Texas spending stands out because Trump’s allies are showing considerably less urgency in other battlegrounds. No Going Back PAC Inc., one of two new super PACs reportedly funded by MAGA Inc., has no October advertising reservations in North Carolina, according to AdImpact.

Republicans are defending an open Senate seat in North Carolina. No Going Back PAC had spent money there earlier, making the absence of October reservations a sharp shift as the campaign enters its final weeks.

The group has also booked only a few hundred thousand dollars in October airtime in Georgia. Georgia is one of only two states where Republicans realistically have a chance to capture a Senate seat currently held by Democrats.

More reservations could still be made, and the available figures do not include direct mail or canvassing. Even so, the pullback could reflect reduced confidence in Republican Senate candidates in North Carolina and Georgia, or a decision to let other Republican organizations carry those contests.

No Going Back PAC is taking a different approach elsewhere. It continues spending heavily heading into October in attempts to capture open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire while protecting Republican seats in Ohio and Alaska.

Those choices provide the clearest look so far at Trump’s midterm spending priorities. By the end of August, MAGA Inc., operated by the president’s outside political team, had spent only a small portion of its $400 million war chest supporting other Republicans.

The slow start prompted questions, including from Republicans, about when the president would deploy that money and which candidates would benefit. The answer is emerging as the party’s enormous financial advantage struggles to produce matching political momentum.

The Republican Party and its largest outside spending organizations have promoted a cash advantage of roughly $500 million over Democratic counterparts. Democrats, however, are raising more through grassroots campaigns in many races and lead the generic congressional ballot by about 7 points, according to polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne.

That measure asks voters whether they would prefer an unnamed Democratic or Republican candidate in their House district. The gap offers an awkward backdrop for a Republican operation sitting on historic piles of cash while scrambling to decide where that money might matter.

Much of Trump’s spending is flowing through No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC Inc., another new group. Both launched in early September, and by Friday those organizations and MAGA Inc. had aired or reserved at least $168 million in advertisements supporting Republicans in Senate and House contests nationwide, according to AdImpact.

MAGA Inc. accounted for only $18 million of that total. Neither super PAC reportedly funded by MAGA Inc. has disclosed its donors to the FEC, and advertisements carry the new groups’ names rather than MAGA Inc.’s because those groups pay for them.

That arrangement could benefit Republican candidates reluctant to be associated with Trump amid recent polling showing his approval rating deeply underwater. Partial expenditure reports from No Going Back PAC document tens of millions of dollars spent on television advertisements, digital advertising and direct mail across Senate races in Texas, North Carolina, Michigan and other states.

The group is also active in House contests, seeking to defeat a Democratic incumbent in New York while defending vulnerable Republican seats in Iowa, California, Nebraska, North Carolina and other states. Still, spending tied to MAGA Inc. represents only one portion of the broader Republican financial machine.

Since January 2025, Republican campaigns, super PACs, political nonprofits and other organizations have spent almost $4 billion on advertising, according to AdImpact. A Republican strategist working on midterm races said at least $1 billion remains available for the closing stretch across MAGA Inc., major super PACs aligned with Republican leadership and other groups.

“MAGA Inc. spending is additive,” the strategist told MS NOW. “It’s not going to be determinative to the results, but it’s helpful. Republicans would much rather have it than not.”

“There’s more cash, more resources than ever being deployed across the Republican ecosystem,” the strategist added. “It’s an ever-evolving, ever-moving target in the last 40 days before the election.”

If Democrats perform as strongly as current polling suggests, the results could test whether unlimited money alone can still deliver victories in close races. For now, Trump’s spending map shows Republicans pouring millions into protecting Texas while easing off in battlegrounds they need to win the Senate.