Republican operatives in Texas warned well before the general election that choosing state Attorney General Ken Paxton over longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn could amount to political suicide. Their case rested on Paxton’s extensive personal baggage and the fear that it made him far less electable.

Republican primary voters ignored those pleas. They followed President Donald Trump, who backed Paxton at the eleventh hour and turned away from Cornyn, leaving the party with the candidate its own strategists had warned against.

Now, with fewer than six weeks remaining before Election Day, that alarm looks painfully relevant. Polling shows Paxton losing to Democratic candidate James Talarico, while some GOP voters say they cannot support a candidate they view as corrupt.

A New York Times focus group offered a vivid snapshot of the problem. The panel included 12 Texans who voted for Trump in 2024, including six Republicans as well as Democrats and independents.

All six Republicans described Paxton with brutal language, calling him “bad,” “amoral,” “morally corrupt,” “disgusting,” a “womanizer” and a “crook.” The Democratic and independent participants used the same words, giving the Republican nominee a remarkably consistent review.

Hitesh, a Republican aged 57, questioned Trump’s decision, telling the Times, “It was really crazy that Trump stood behind Paxton.” He also criticized the last minute turn away from Cornyn and said Paxton had “such a shady background.”

Republicans are now spending millions of dollars in an effort to reverse their fortunes in Texas. Their campaign includes bigoted and false attack ads targeting Talarico, but those attacks are arriving late in the election cycle.

Talarico had already spent millions on advertising that highlighted Paxton’s corruption and personal conduct. At the same time, those ads presented Talarico as a proud Texan with a squeaky clean background, allowing him to define the contrast before Republicans launched their counterattack.

One Talarico ad, assembled from footage of a speech, puts the corruption argument in blunt terms. “Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in Texas,” Talarico says.

He continues, “Since taking office, Ken Paxton’s net worth has increased 7,000%.” Talarico adds, “He now owns 15 homes, while most Texans can’t afford one.”

In the ad, Talarico also says Paxton was impeached by his own party for taking bribes from wealthy donors while blocking overtime pay for Texas workers and gutting health care. It closes with a stark line: “We cannot afford Ken Paxton’s corruption.”

That message has already settled into the race, while the alarmist and absurd advertisements from Republican super PACs have failed to move the needle. The late spending blitz is running headfirst into a portrait of Paxton that voters have already seen repeatedly.

The timing is especially bleak for Republicans because polling shows political corruption is a top issue for voters this cycle. It ranks behind inflation and the cost of living, making Paxton an extraordinarily awkward nominee for the political moment.

A super PAC supporting Talarico has also released an advertisement featuring a former Texas GOP lawmaker who backed Paxton’s impeachment. The former lawmaker says Paxton will not receive his vote this fall, offering Republican voters a path to reject their own nominee.

Paxton, meanwhile, keeps handing Talarico more material. Audio unearthed Wednesday captured Paxton saying the Uvalde school shooting was a “plan” by “God,” adding another controversy with Election Day rapidly approaching.

Sebastian, an independent aged 50, delivered a devastating assessment to the Times: “They picked the wrong candidate.” He added, “If they picked anybody else, they would have won.”

Jennifer, a Republican aged 50, framed the choice as one between Talarico and a candidate voters consider a crook with bad morals. She predicted that people would not vote for Paxton and that Talarico probably would win.