Katy Padilla Stout describes Big Bend as the finest part of Texas District 23, a landscape of stratified cliffs, cacti, pastel sunsets, wildlife and the Rio Grande. The former teacher and attorney for children in foster care says the district’s people “will absolutely take your breath away.”

As the Democratic nominee in District 23, Padilla Stout is betting that South Texas voters will judge candidates rather than simply follow party labels. “Our big thing has always been people over party,” she told the Prospect.

Democrats like their chances in November even though the region overwhelmingly chose Donald Trump two years ago. They argue that his administration and the Republican Party took voters for granted, combining an unaffordable economy with a mass deportation campaign that has frightened residents.

Republicans redrew South Texas last year expecting to gain five seats, but the region, more than 92% Hispanic or Latino, is now favoring Democratic representatives. In a New York Times and Siena University poll this month, 65% of Hispanic voters were unhappy with Trump’s job performance, while 78% preferred Democratic control of Congress.

Padilla Stout’s campaign conducts at least four block walks each week, and she says affordability dominates conversations. Voters ask, “How are we going to not just maintain the status quo, but how are we going to charge forward?”

She also says new voices are objecting to immigration raids that overwhelmingly target Black and brown people, regardless of immigration status. Business owners fear losing their usual labor force, and Padilla Stout said “small-business owners in Texas have understood for a long time that our labor force is tied to our relationship with Mexico.”

Republicans are spending heavily in districts Trump carried by double digits. In District 23, No Going Back PAC and Elon Musk’s America PAC have spent more than $64,000 against Padilla Stout, who faces Republican gun influencer Brandon Herrera, known as “The AK Guy.”

In District 35, No Going Back PAC has spent almost $783,000, although Trump won it 55 to 44. The contest features Democratic sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia and Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran whose sister is Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz.

Democrats already hold Districts 28 and 34 through Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez Jr., even though both districts went for Trump 55 to 45. The Congressional Leadership Fund has spent more than $500,000 trying to replace Cuellar with Republican nominee and Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, while America PAC has spent nearly $8,000.

Super PACs have spent about $606,000 trying to flip Gonzalez’s seat for Republican Eric Flores, a former assistant U.S. attorney who says his Christian faith guides him. The Prospect reported that Flores is using Trump’s bogus $5,000 promise to persuade voters to give him money so he can retire his debt.

“Those are resources they take from other seats,” Gonzalez told the Prospect. He said Republicans also “hurt a lot of their own members” through economic and immigration policies, with affordability the top issue where more than 22% of families live in poverty, compared with 11% statewide.

Gonzalez said “these hyperaggressive ICE raids in South Texas are now hurting businesses,” with bankers and farmers among those objecting. He added, “One of the larger farmers in my district is only farming half of his land because he doesn’t have workers.”

Democrats caution that the Valley is not guaranteed to vote blue now or later. Dr. Álvaro J. Corral, assistant professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said voters are angry about the country’s direction but “probably not all that enthused about the quality” of Democratic candidates, particularly Cuellar.

Corral called the Valley a low turnout region in a low turnout state and said the outcome will depend on who can generate excitement. Republicans ended voting for an entire party ticket in 2020, allowing voters to choose candidates across party lines.

Corral pointed to Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, who is challenging Monica De La Cruz in District 15, as a Democrat exciting voters. He highlighted Pulido’s message: “He’s not Team Red. He’s not Team Blue. South Texas, he is Team You.”

“It means they’re up for grabs,” Pulido said of voters dissatisfied with Trump but not necessarily happy with Democrats. He expects redistricting to backfire and declared, “You’re gonna see in November, we’re not loyal to parties here.”

Padilla Stout says Democrats must earn those votes, which is why she is organizing with others across Texas to knock on doors, make calls and send handwritten postcards. Her message is blunt: “The people are the boss … not the other way around.”