WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Steve Deace warned that Iowa Republicans face a potentially devastating November election environment.
  • Republicans hold 67 of 100 Iowa state House seats, while all four U.S. House seats are currently Republican.
  • Deace blamed Iran and Hormuz, weak messaging, and insufficient campaigning by Trump for Republican difficulties.
  • Despite Trump’s declining approval, Deace argued that putting him back on the campaign trail could rescue the party.

Steve Deace is panicking over Republican prospects in Iowa this November, and his proposed rescue plan manages to be even more revealing than the grim electoral picture he describes. His answer is simple: Give President Donald Trump more attention.

Deace is a longtime far right media personality and host of “The Steve Deace Show” on Glenn Beck’s BlazeTV. He is an influential figure in Iowa’s evangelical conservative movement, mixing staunch social conservatism and evangelical Christianity with MAGA era populism.

In a lengthy Wednesday post on X, Deace described a brutal political environment for his party. The warning he relayed from Republican pollsters suggested that even comfortably Republican districts might no longer be comfortable.

“Yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006,” Deace wrote.

The exact number of Iowa state House districts within those margins was not available from a reliable source. Republicans, however, currently control 67 of the chamber’s 100 seats, meaning an environment where R+15 districts are competitive could threaten a meaningful portion of that majority.

Deace was discussing state legislative districts, but Iowa’s congressional map offers additional context for his alarm. Republicans hold all four of the state’s U.S. House seats, while Trump carried three of those districts in 2024 by 10 percentage points or less.

Trump won Iowa by 13 points that year. The state’s U.S. Senate contest is also described as highly competitive, adding another problem to the Republican anxiety already evident in Deace’s post.

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Deace identified Iran and Hormuz as a major political burden for Republicans. “Whatever we’re doing or not doing in Iran/Hormuz has become a 2020 Covid lockdown level of political albatross,” he wrote.

He argued that Republicans are risking what remains of the Trump presidency. In his view, Democratic control of the legislative branch would largely halt the domestic agenda Trump voters supported, while also affecting states such as Iowa that conservatives have worked for 20 years to make more Republican.

Yet Deace still believes Republicans can escape the wreckage. His prescription includes sending Trump back onto the campaign trail immediately and adopting far more aggressive political messaging.

“We need the president out on the stump asap,” Deace wrote. He also derided Republican advertisements about how often candidates appear for votes as “fake and gay ads” and called for relentless attacks on what Democrats support.

Deace additionally wants Trump to explain the objective in Iran and Hormuz. “Articulate specifically what the mission/victory is in Iran/Hormuz, because out here in the cheap seats it feels like another Middle East War quagmire regular folks are paying for on both ends all over again.”

The notion that greater exposure to Trump will repair Republican fortunes is where Deace’s plan becomes particularly comical. Trump’s public appearances have included remarks about snipers on his arch, the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, and putting his name on Ford’s Theatre.

Republicans already tried showcasing Trump at their midterm convention. According to the account, that event failed spectacularly, with polling deteriorating afterward, hardly a compelling argument for turning the same performance into a traveling production.

The fixation on better messaging also ignores the economic reality confronting voters. People are struggling to fill their gas tanks and grocery carts, and endless Republican complaints about transgender swimmers do nothing to reduce those costs.

Latinos supported Trump in distressingly large numbers in 2024 despite his conduct because they believed his promises to lower prices. When families cannot afford food, the source argues, they may accept a political choice they otherwise would reject.

Now right leaning voters may face their own version of that calculation. Whatever hostility they feel toward Democrats, the reality of Trump’s leadership could outweigh the usual conservative claims about Democratic wickedness.

Deace also expects Trump to articulate a theory of victory in Iran, although Trump never presented one from the beginning. Demanding clarity now does not solve the absence of clarity that produced the complaint.

Most tellingly, Deace cannot accept that Trump may be the central reason Republicans face this predicament. Trump’s approval rating is threatening to fall into the 20s and has already done so in at least one poll, yet Deace still imagines more Trump will save the party.

That is less an electoral strategy than an expression of devotion. If Republicans truly believe Trump campaigning every day until Election Day will reverse their fortunes, Democrats should be perfectly happy to watch them test that theory.