Republican leaders have spent the runup to the midterms making increasingly rosy predictions about their prospects. They insist the party will preserve control of the House and even expand its majority, despite mounting evidence that this confidence is detached from the political landscape.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report offered a far bleaker assessment Friday. Its analysis concluded that Republicans now face nearly impossible odds of maintaining control of the chamber.

“The worsening political environment for Republicans has made the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the chamber almost impossible,” the outlet wrote on X. That blunt assessment landed as Republican leaders continued publicly promising victory.

Cook also changed the ratings of 15 House races in ways that favor Democrats. Taken together, those shifts show the House battlefield moving away from Republicans as the election approaches.

The Cook Political Report currently expects Democrats to gain between five and 15 seats. It also said that total could grow as Election Day gets closer, adding another layer of misery to the GOP’s increasingly shaky outlook.

Republicans are not merely confronting grim public analysis. Party figures are also privately grieving their odds and admitting that their internal polling looks just as bad as public polling, if not worse.

Political analyst Nate Silver reported that Democrats now lead Republicans by 8.1% on the generic ballot. That advantage has increased by 2 points since Labor Day, which serves as the unofficial beginning of the general election campaign.

The political conditions creating problems for Republicans are also unlikely to disappear before early voting begins in several key states. Among those pressures are high gas prices sparked by Trump’s war in Iran, leaving Republicans with vanishingly little time to reverse their fortunes.

The panic has spread to Florida, a state that has moved far to the right in recent years. Anger over the increased cost of living is now producing signs of erosion for Republicans there.

An unnamed Florida GOP county chair gave Politico a particularly gruesome diagnosis. “We are not on life support. But we are hemorrhaging,” the chair said.

“The question is: Do we stop the bleeding now, or wait until we reach critical conditions?” the county chair added. It is hardly the language of a party confidently preparing to expand its power.

Democrats are also advancing in Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is struggling against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. The situation became serious enough for Vice President JD Vance to travel to the state and campaign.

Democrats are now considering putting money into that Kansas race. The possibility reflects how Republican troubles are extending beyond the House battlefield and into Senate contests that have drawn fresh Democratic attention.

Texas is producing still more Republican anxiety. Party members have begun privately admitting that they could lose their Senate seat there to Democrat James Talarico.

“It’s going to take a Herculean effort to hold the seat,” an unnamed Texas GOP operative told Politico. That warning closely tracks the wider Republican mood described by polling, race ratings, and private party assessments.

Republican leaders can continue predicting that they will retain the House and enlarge their majority, but the evidence presented by Cook points in the opposite direction. Fifteen rating changes favor Democrats, the generic ballot gap has widened, and Republican operatives are openly discussing political bleeding and Herculean rescue efforts.

This year’s midterms are therefore shaping up as a potential bloodbath for the GOP. After all the swaggering predictions from Republican leaders, their supposedly expanding majority is looking more like an almost impossible rescue mission.